the other day i was sitting at my boss’s place playing some first person shooter on his ps2 during office hours (yes, some people have all the luck). that is when i was introduced to adam scott’s books. after i read some of that dude’s works, i hurried back to my office and deleted some of the shit which i was earlier proud of. in fact i was so impressed with his predictions that i decided to come up with some of my own for the stock markets. good thing about predictions is that even if they don’t come true, you are probably dead by then.
prediction 1: people will stop listening to the experts
what makes an expert an expert is still open to debate. anyways most of these morons are self proclaimed experts. their predictions range from plain stupid to entertaining bizarre. “markets might go up on account of expected fii inflows, or if that doesn’t happen they might see a little red due to domestic selling pressure.” its like telling your girl- “honey, today you might or might not orgasm.” but what cracks me up the most is the way some of these experts write their reports. its nothing but a collection of day’s statistics in an organized and a readable manner, followed by one or two comments which makes sense to most users (not necessarily true). if bankex will be down by 8%, the comment will be something like- today banking sector was hammered on account of weak results. the results were declared 2 weeks back goddamned.
anyways, in the future people will be much more inclined towards (genuine) logic and will not buy this crap. and zibika will act as a harbinger to the revolution. cheers.
prediction 2: there will be only one stock exchange in the world
i’ve always debated the need for multiple stock exchanges in the country. true it creates competition between the various exchanges thereby improving their services, but i can see only good coming out of unifying all the exchanges. there will be far less complications in terms of listing, no scope for arbitrage etc . one stock exchange in the world may seem a far cry at the moment, but in the long term when all economies have virtually merged and have overlapped, it’ll become call of the hour. however i expect the regulators to merge the exchanges into one entity (anything to support my argumentsJ).
prediction 3: brokers will cease to exist
the longest running debate in modern history must be ‘who is the biggest liar of ‘em all- lawyers, politicians or stockbrokers. traditionally visualised as twisted beings, who leave no one’s pockets outturned. they have a knack for lying and smooth talking the poor ‘hari bhai,’ who knows nothing about investing but has heard there is a lot of money to be made, into investing into dirtiest of the dirty stocks. they have been known to manipulate individual stocks, sometime even the market as a whole. they periodically indulge in insider trading, spread rumors in the form of tips….. the list is never ending.
so by the year 2020 (i am saying 2020 because it seems to be the hot favourite, we’ll be a superpower by 2020, we’ll be a developed economy by 2020 etc), all the investors will trade directly on exchanges from their own terminals sitting at home. one major disadvantage of this development will be that the investors will not have anyone to blame for their wrong decisions. but this problem will be solved in about 20 years, the next prediction will explain how.
prediction 4: you won’t have to pick a stock
every company is going crazy picking stake in other companies. by the year 2040 all major companies will have a stake in every other major company. dividends will make up for about 90% of any company’s revenue and 90% of which will again go out in paying dividends to other companies. by the end of it one company will be holding 1.29% stake in another company through 84093 different ways. for eg: zibika infotech will hold stakes in unreliable energy:
- directly
- through groundtel
- through byebye consultancy services
- through groundtel which holds a stake in byebye consultancy services
- through byebye consultancy services which holds a stake in groundtel
imagine what this number would be if we bring in some 50 companies in the picture. the bottom line is - by 2040, we won’t have to break our head over which stock to buy. it will cease to matter anyways, because no matter where we put our money, it’ll be shared amongst all the companies.
will predict some more as and when the nostradamus in me wakes up. till then, ciao. keep irritating me at content[at]zibika[dot]com. and don’t feel bad about it, i get paid for it.
